Survey by INTRVL and Up To Us Shows Decision Could Mobilize Younger, Less-Frequent Voters

A new poll conducted by INTRVL reveals how overturning Roe could increase turnout among a key voter group in 2022. After the draft opinion overturning the landmark abortion rights case was leaked, INTRVL quickly fielded a poll on behalf of a youth voter advocacy group, Up To Us. Using its advanced analytical and survey methods, INTRVL was able to identify the population subgroups who were most likely to be mobilized by the Supreme Court news and to understand their concerns regarding the Court’s actions.

“Polling with a tight turnaround was key to capitalizing on a fast news cycle. INTRVL’s ability to generate these quick-turn insights allowed our client to discover new pockets of support that may have been overlooked with traditional survey methods,” said Steven McAlpine, CEO of INTRVL. “With our cost-efficient surveys and unmatched analytical capabilities, INTRVL was made to help organizations of all sizes find new opportunities with their most important audiences.”

INTRVL’s public opinion research delivers transformative insights and precise analysis — all at the speed of campaigns. Here are key take-aways from this nationwide survey on the potential Roe decision:

Roe Decision Could Increase Turnout Among Younger Voters
As a result of potential new restrictions on abortion access,
how much more likely are you to vote in the upcoming election?
  • The Roe decision could increase young voter turnout: Nearly half of young adults report they are more likely to vote as a result of the leaked decision overturning Roe v Wade.
  • Democrats stand to benefit at the ballot box: By a 3:2 margin, the news about the Court decision makes younger adults more likely to vote for Democrats over Republicans.
  • Infrequent young voters are particularly energized: Nearly ⅓ of low-propensity younger voters report they are now more likely to vote after the news about Roe
  • Many think abortion is not the only right at risk: more than ¾ of individuals aged 18-34 are concerned about them or their loved ones having access to reproductive health services in general. 45% of young people are concerned specifically about losing access to contraception.
Strong Concerns About Access to Reproductive Health Among Young Adults
How concerned are you about you and your loved ones’ access to reproductive health services if abortion rights were overturned by the Supreme Court?
  • Young voters fear severe consequences: There is significant concern among younger voters about further attacks on civil liberties. More than 4 out of 10 express concern over doctors being jailed for providing medical treatment and bans on same-sex marriage.

From May 4-5, 2022, INTRVL conducted an online survey of US adults (n = 450) with a topline margin of error of ±5.7 pp, including design effects. INTRVL used multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) to estimate national opinion levels from the survey sample and account for sampling error and non-response bias. Survey participants’ age, gender, race, and previous vote history were included as features in the process.

INTRVL helps campaigns turbocharge their ad performance with advanced media optimization and audience research tools. These tools generate insights based on how audiences actually see media in the wild, revealing optimization opportunities not possible in the controlled environment of online panels and typical creative pre-tests — unlocking 2-3X more effective ad buys without additional media spend.

Click here for the top-line poll results.